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Quote of the Day

Judging from the following famous quotes, the sweet smell of success involves a lot of sweat:

• The difference between a successful person and others is not a lack of strength, not a lack of knowledge, but rather a lack of will.
-- Vince Lombardi (NFL Hall of Fame coach)

• Success is how high you bounce when you hit bottom.
-- General George Patton

• Anyone who has never made a mistake has never tried anything new.
-- Albert Einstein

• The road to success runs uphill.
-- Willie Davis (NFL Hall of Fame player under Lombardi)

My Point: Driver shortage: Back to the future

By Marvin Shefsky

An old adage maintains that the trucking industry is the first sector to feel the negative impact of an economic downturn and the first to spring back when the economy begins to rebound. Anyone involved with the trucking industry knows how quickly freight, miles and money dried up when the Great Recession first took hold in the winter of 2007/2008. Now, as the struggling economy appears to be finally turning around, the trucking industry is right where it's supposed to be, leading the way forward.

While no one is bold enough to say that the economy is out of the woods let alone out of the weeds, plenty of signs point to better days ahead. For example, recent quarterly results from several major carriers reflect improving freight demand. The turnaround has prompted some industry veterans to dredge up memories of - dare we say it - a driver shortage.

You remember the good, old days of “driver shortage,” don't you? It was only a few years ago that the trucking industry was wringing its hands about annual driver turnover rates in the 120-percent range and wondering what they were going to do about the 250,000-driver shortfall predicted for 2010. Well, it's (almost) baaaaaack.

OK, the driver shortage has yet to reach pre-recession epidemic proportions, but it's at least a topic of conversation for the first time in more than two years thanks to the recovering economy combined with the Federal Motor Carriers Safety Administration's Comprehensive Safety Analysis 2010 (CSA), which could affect the driver pool. Under the initiative - scheduled for implementation this summer - the Feds will start amassing data on every driver and every truck, noting every violation and every failed inspection, and linking all of that data through an integrated computer network to individual carriers and fleet owners. Drivers (and carriers) with substandard safety records will be subject to suspension.

In a recent article titled “Improving economy squeezes truck driver supply,” Reuters news service notes that industry analyst Noel Perry sees a driver shortage of about 180,000 in 2010 and 500,000 in 2011 as the recovering economy increases demand and the new regulations crimp the supply. “As the marketplace expands, even slowly as we are forecasting, there will be a driver shortage,” Perry says.

Two other trends - drivers tend to retire earlier and, unfortunately, die earlier than other workers - could shrink the driver pool. A rebound in manufacturing and construction jobs could further draw down the driver pool.

“While masked by a poor economy in recent years, these factors combined with fewer new entrants coming through driving school/carrier training programs during the recession, will limit the ability of the industry to add capacity,” JB Hunt spokesman Greg Smith told Reuters in an e-mail.

Concluded Reuters: “Trucking companies diverted efforts away from recruitment and training in the last two to three years, leaving them with the need to ramp up aggressively as demand builds up.”

To be sure, quality drivers always have and always will be in demand, regardless of the economic situation. The demand, however, will only increase as the economy improves. Give us a call today to see how our driver recruitment magazines - Driver HEALTH and Over the Road - can help you find the quality drivers your organization is looking for. That's what we've been doing for more than 30 years, and it's what we do best.

-- Marvin Shefsky, Publisher/CEO
(Marvin@RampMediaGroup.com)

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